"Bounce" folklore

NOTE from 9 Sept. -- apparently this post may have been wishful thinking on my part. A lot of the same factors that provoke strong feelings of disapproval for me are, of course, selling points to a large fraction of the U.S. electorate. Or at least that might be the lesson to draw from the latest polling data. At the same time, legendary "bounces" have a way of succumbing to gravity as people consider the details, especially when a candidate is as unknown to all but the right-wing fringe of that electorate. In the spirit of showing that I'm as human and fallible as Candidate Palin, I'm leaving this bit of hubris in place. Consider it a bow to my Puritan ancestors or something of that sort.

It seemed clear to me that there was none of the widely touted "bounce" for either candidate in the aftermath of either convention, so I did some looking.

Seems there hasn't been a "bounce" in many years, at least since party conventions learned to turn themselves into content-free, no news zones, something usually blamed on the '68 Democratic convention in Daley's Chicago, and the damage it was said to have done to the Democrats at that time, in a year when Nixon was already a widely reviled figure to many, at least many who would have (or did) vote Democrat.

It also led me to track down what many now tout as the best alternative to opinion polling as a predictor of the November result. There's more on market-based prediction in this MSNBC piece from Friday.

Here is the price history from the Iowa Electronic Markets for this election.



Check out the Iowa Electronic Markets site for more details and more stats.



If this one gets stolen you know the fix is in and the democratic process is no longer at work in the U.S.

PUMA Petulance

Can these individuals really be Democrats? Hint: Search "PUMA" on YouTube (or most anywhere else for that matter -- their websites are a real hoot). After you recover your balance and your appetite, ask yourself just how likely it is that more than a tiny fraction of these people are what they claim to be.





At least a few members of the media have noticed how absurd these shills are, and how threadbare are their stated positions. Seems to me those signing up to play the traditional Republican games of distraction from a corrupt and destructive platform are even more transparent than usual?

Then again, I have a habit of voting for lost causes. Something tells me, though, this time at least will be different.

Don't Worry About the Government

We'll tell you all you need to know about our candidates. No need for messy middlemen of the press.



This story is simply astounding. That's right, the Republican Party actually wants you to believe that their Vice Presidential candidate deserves the sort of special protection that will keep her out of uncontrolled speaking engagements and serious Q&A sessions from now until November. I guess this is why candidates typically put off announcing a running mate for as long as they can?

Is it merely coincidence, I wonder, that McCain spokesmodel, Nicole Wallace, shares names with a fictional character described as follows?

"A sociopathic con artist, thief, and serial killer, Wallace has 20 known murders to her name by the Season 7 episode, "Frame". She has the chameleon-like ability to reinvent herself after each crime, going from her refined, intellectual lifestyle as a university professor to that of a charming wife of a wealthy man, then to a shacking up in a cheap apartment with a female lover, and later as a surrogate wife and mother to a broken family." (Wikipedia's summary of Nicole Wallace's career -- not the Republican spokesmodel... or IS she?)

Seriously, though, Wallace's comments in this clip seem to give the last bit of "proof" I needed to conclude that Republican's are floating all the various pregnancy and adultery stories mainly as a way to distract attention from Palin's lack of qualifications, and take away attention from her fringe beliefs, her extra-legal approach so far, as demonstrated by her acts as an executive officer -- the shit-canning of a state police official who would not rubber-stamp her efforts to go vindictive on her ex-brother-in-law's case, and other shady deals sure to come to light from now until November (or for the next 4 years in the unlikely event this ticket manages to take the White House).

More background on the real-life Nicole Wallace -- her slug line in this interview is "McCain Senior Adviser Nicolle Wallace, a former CBS News analyst and communications director to President Bush".

One wonders given her spin mistress act in the video up top, was Wallace a strategist in suggesting how to use Palin's personal embarrassments and other irrelevant facts and rumors as tactical weapon in delaying and deflecting most substantive issues to the sidebars where the Republican's hope that anyone voting on likeability and other irrelevancies would scarcely care to venture?